What The Iran Conflict Means For Gas Prices At The Pump

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is ripping through global energy markets, raising concerns that disruptions to oil supply could eventually affect fuel prices and, by extension, the automotive industry.

Following ongoing U.S. air strikes in Iran, Tehran has responded by shutting down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes for crude oil. The narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and serves as the primary export route for several major oil-producing countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.

Because so much of the world’s oil supply flows through this corridor, even a temporary disruption can quickly influence global energy markets. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, including about 35 percent of seaborne crude shipments. Data from analytics firm Kpler estimated that roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2025.

Any interruption to that flow has immediate consequences. Oil prices began climbing shortly after the closure, with Brent crude rising to around $90 per barrel today, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts warn that if the situation persists, the market could tighten further as shipments are delayed or rerouted.

Some estimates suggest as much as 15 million barrels of oil per day could be temporarily blocked from reaching global markets if shipping remains suspended. While alternative routes exist, they are generally longer, more expensive, and in some cases pass through regions already experiencing security concerns.

Energy analysts say the longer the disruption continues, the greater the risk that oil prices could push toward—or even exceed—the $100-per-barrel mark. That threshold historically tends to translate into higher gasoline prices in many parts of the world.

"The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows," JPMorgan analysts said in a report on Friday. 

The national average gas price has jumped 32 cents a gallon since the conflict began, to roughly $3.30 a gallon. Diesel owners have been hit harder; prices at the pump have soared 51 cents this week to $4.26 a gallon. The continued shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, will likely continue to push fuel prices higher through the weekend.

The situation inevitably brings comparisons to the oil crises of the 1970s, when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered supply shortages and sharp fuel price increases. Those events reshaped the global auto industry, accelerating the shift toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles in markets like the United States.

While current conditions are far from the severe shortages seen during that era, the automotive sector remains closely tied to global energy prices. Rising fuel costs can influence consumer behavior, often shifting demand toward vehicles with better fuel economy or alternative powertrains.

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