Never Mind Lithium, We Don't Have Enough Copper For EV Production
A study from the International Energy Forum highlights the immense material challenges facing global efforts to electrify all vehicles by 2050.
Led by researchers Dr. Lawrence Cathles from Cornell University and Dr. Adam Simon from the University of Michigan, the study suggests that meeting the copper demands required for a full transition to electric vehicles (EVs) could be far more difficult than anticipated. Copper, a key component in EVs and renewable energy systems, is in limited supply, and ramping up its production to meet the 2050 target for net-zero emissions is deemed nearly impossible.
The study estimates that in order to electrify the entire global vehicle fleet by 2050, an additional 55% of new copper mines would need to come online, a staggering amount considering that mining copper is already behind schedule to meet demand. Current projections already require mining at least 115% more copper than has been extracted in human history before 2018— which is far from feasible given the 23-year average timeline for new mines to go from discovery to operation.
Interestingly, the researchers propose a more realistic alternative: targeting 100% hybrid vehicle production by 2035 rather than full EVs. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) require far less copper—just 29 kg per vehicle compared to 60 kg for a fully electric vehicle—making them a more achievable goal without placing unrealistic pressure on the global copper supply chain.
Automakers have already caught on to the difficulties facing a full transition, with many of them walking back plans for full electrification and deciding to add more hybrid models to meet growing consumer demand. The study underscores the complexity of the green transition, stressing that realistic resource assessments must be part of future planning.
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An experienced automotive storyteller known for engaging and insightful content. Michael also brings a wealth of technical knowledge and experience having been part of the Ford GT program at Multimatic and built cars that raced in TCR, IMSA, and IndyCar.
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