Ford F-150 Production Could Be In Big Trouble
Fire at a key aluminum production facility in upstate New York threatens to snarl the automotive supply chain—with Ford expected to take the most damage.
Key Points
- A massive blaze destroyed the hot mill at Novelis’s Oswego aluminum plant, cutting off 40% of U.S. auto-grade aluminum supply.
- Ford—Novelis’s largest U.S. customer—faces potential production slowdowns for aluminum-bodied vehicles like the F-150.
- The outage could tighten supply chains, raise costs, and test the auto industry’s resilience well into 2026.
The blaze happened last month at the Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, destroying the facility’s hot rolling mill—a critical piece of equipment that produces the aluminum sheets used in everything from pickup truck bodies to EV battery enclosures.
While no injuries were reported, the damage is extensive enough that portions of the plant are expected to remain offline well into next year, according to company officials. Novelis supplies approximately 40 percent of the aluminum sheets used in U.S. auto production, including those for Ford, Toyota, Stellantis, Volkswagen, and Hyundai.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the company said it plans to reroute production to its overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea; however, those metal shipments could face import tariffs of up to 50 percent, which would be devastating for everyone up and down the supply chain, with the end user likely ending up the biggest loser.
The plant’s disruption could not come at a worse time for Ford. The automaker is Novelis’s largest U.S. customer, relying on aluminum from Oswego for the F-150, Expedition, and several other high-volume vehicles.
Analysts warn that the downtime could dent Ford’s earnings in the coming quarter, as the company scrambles to secure replacement supply for its aluminum-bodied F-150 pickup—easily one of the automaker's most profitable products.
The loss of Novelis’s U.S. capacity will likely strain the aluminum supply across the entire industry, pushing prices higher just as automakers contend with a melt-up in material costs and flagging demand for investment-intensive electric vehicles.
The consequences may reach far beyond automakers. Novelis’s aluminum supports numerous suppliers that produce structural components, body panels, and trim parts, meaning even a temporary slowdown is likely to ripple deep into the manufacturing ecosystem—similar to the semiconductor shortage that crippled automakers during the pandemic.
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An experienced automotive storyteller and accomplished photographer known for engaging and insightful content. Michael also brings a wealth of technical knowledge—he was part of the Ford GT program at Multimatic, oversaw a fleet of Audi TCR race cars, ziptied Lamborghini Super Trofeo cars back together, been over the wall during the Rolex 24, and worked in the intense world of IndyCar.
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How are those Tariff's working out for you now USA???
How are they working for you? Bob