NHTSA Flips the Truck-to-Car Ratio for 2030 Models

The change comes in the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule III for Model Years 2022 to 2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks. It was published in the Federal Register in late September and becomes effective November 30.

The rule revises mileage requirements covering the 2022 through 2031 model years. Under Biden, the target had been set near a U.S. fleet average of 50.4 mpg. The new rules bring that figure down to 34.9 mpg, and part of that reduction comes from redefining what counts as a car and what counts as a truck.

The federal split between passenger automobiles and non-passenger automobiles dates to the fuel-economy rules of the 1970s, and the technical definitions have shifted repeatedly. According to the SAFE Rule, that repeated tug-of-war pushed "manufacturers to reshape the market in unanticipated ways," including nearly eliminating station wagons in favor of minivans and crossovers that counted as light trucks and faced looser standards.

The rule notes that 68 percent of the light-duty fleet now meets the regulatory definition of a light truck, yet the bulk of those vehicles "cannot realistically operate off-highway and have little value moving cargo."

Under the updated definitions, non-passenger vehicles must "exhibit true non-passenger capabilities." That means off-highway attributes like approach angle and running clearance, or design elements enabling higher payload and towing. NHTSA expects the current 70 percent truck, 30 percent car mix to become 30 percent truck, 70 percent car.

That reclassification carries a production-side risk. Because imported passenger vehicles are not held to the same domestic CAFE minimum, and because credits can be shifted between imported and domestic fleets, building outside the U.S. could offer compliance benefits.

Tom Stricker, a senior policy adviser with the firm Van Ness Feldman, said offshoring part of a supply chain to reclassify a model as an import means "the net environmental impact and fuel consumption impact has not changed one bit; all you've done is potentially, in this scenario, offshored certain production."

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